Trump's Oil Order: Brent $72 to $113 Since Iran War

Trump ne Iran pe attack kiya, aur ab oil ke liye war-time law. 22 Oct ke memo mein kya hai, war ke baad oil, inflation aur approval kahan pahunchi, aur oil bets ka sawaal: documented facts ke saath.

The facts:
- On Thu 22 Oct 2026 the White House published a presidential memo under Section 303 of the Defense Production Act on "domestic petroleum production, refining, and logistics capacity". It calls these "essential to the national defense", rests on the energy emergency Trump declared on 20 Jan 2025 (Executive Order 14156), and authorizes the Secretary of War (the Pentagon) to make "necessary purchases, commitments, and financial instruments". It does not mention Iran, the war or prices, and it is not a new emergency declaration.
- It is the second such order this year: a near-identical memo of 20 Apr went to the Secretary of Energy.
- The US and Israel struck Iran in late February 2026; Reuters/Ipsos: "The war triggered a surge in gasoline prices." Brent futures (December contract) settled at $72.48 on 27 Feb, the last trading day before the war, and at $113.17 on 22 Oct. Brent was already near $113 hours before the memo went up.
- On 8 Mar Trump posted on Truth Social that the short-term oil price rise is "a very small price to pay" for "Safety and Peace" (as reported by The Independent via Yahoo News).
- US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September (BLS, via Reuters, 14 Oct); February was 2.4% (BLS data). Markets expect another Fed rate hike in December (a forecast, not a decision). AAA: US regular gasoline averaged $4.27 on 22 Oct, up from $2.98 on 26 Feb.
- IEA chief Fatih Birol said in April that the crisis was "more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2002 together" (AFP, via The Jakarta Post, 7 Apr).
- Reuters/Ipsos (poll closed 19 Oct): 31% of Americans approve of Trump's performance, the lowest level in either of his terms. US midterm elections are on 3 Nov 2026.
- The oil bets: Bloomberg (via Daily Caller, 13 Oct) reported that on 23 Mar, in a two-minute window starting at 6:49 a.m. ET, traders sold oil futures worth at least 6 million barrels, and about 15 minutes later Trump posted on Truth Social that he was backing off a threat to strike Iranian power plants. The Financial Times (via The Hill) put the bets at about $580 million: the size of the bets, not profits. Reuters reported on 15 Apr, citing a person familiar, that the CFTC is investigating oil trades placed shortly before Trump's Iran policy shifts; the CFTC declined to comment. The White House called any implication of wrongdoing without evidence "baseless and irresponsible reporting" (The Hill, 10 Apr).
- The trades were placed by unidentified parties; no one has been charged. We found no public evidence that ties them to Trump or his family.

Sources:
- White House memo, 22 Oct: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/10/presidential-determination-pursuant-to-section-303-of-the-defense-production-act-of-1950-as-amended-on-domestic-petroleum-production-refining-and-logistics-capacity-c139/
- White House memo, 20 Apr: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/04/presidential-determination-pursuant-to-section-303-of-the-defense-production-act-of-1950-as-amended-on-domestic-petroleum-production-refining-and-logistics-capacity/
- Coin Bureau on X, 22 Oct: https://x.com/coinbureau/status/2113380041250013312
- Reuters/Ipsos poll, 19 Oct (Yahoo News): https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/exclusive-trump-approval-falls-record-194154076.html
- US CPI (Sept), Reuters 14 Oct via Virginia Business: https://virginiabusiness.com/us-consumer-price-index-september-rate-hike-bets/
- AAA gas prices: https://gasprices.aaa.com/
- IEA's Birol, AFP via Jakarta Post, 7 Apr: https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2026/04/07/current-oil-and-gas-crisis-worse-than-1973-1979-2002-combined-iea
- Trump's 8 Mar Truth Social post, as reported by The Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/gas-prices-trump-iran-war-b2934333.html
- Reuters, 15 Apr, CFTC probe (via Yahoo Finance): https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/us-probes-suspicious-oil-trades-185104849.html
- Bloomberg via Daily Caller, 13 Oct: https://dailycaller.com/2026/10/13/cftc-oil-trades-insider-trading-referral-mel-gunewardena-michael-selig-iran-bloomberg/
- The Hill (White House statement), 10 Apr: https://digital-release.thehill.com/policy/technology/5825540-white-house-warns-insider-trading/
- Brent futures (BZ=F, December contract) daily closes, Yahoo Finance: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF/
Images: Photo: Official Presidential Portrait (2025), Daniel Torok / The White House (public domain) · Memo: whitehouse.gov · Post: @realDonaldTrump.

News and education only, not financial advice. Investment advice nahi.

#Trump #Oil #BrentCrude #Iran #CryptoJargon

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